Menschen überschätzen, was sich in 1 Jahr verändert und unterschätzen, was sich in zehn Jahren verändert. Das hat wohl mal so ähnlich Bill Gates gesagt.

Und ich glaube, das stimmt. Darum bin ich schon gespannt darauf, wie unsere Welt 2030 wohl ausschaut.

Ich habe hier zwei Voraussagen gefunden, die ich interessant finde. Sie stammen von Fred Wilson, einem der bekanntesten Risikokapitalgeber, und somit professionellem in-die-Zukunft-gucker.

Die Klimakrise ist ähnlich prägend für das 21. Jahrhundert, wie es die zwei Weltkriege für das 20. Jahrhundert waren. Und das wird 2030 schon deutlich sichtbar:

The looming climate crisis will be to this century what the two world wars were to the previous one. It will require countries and institutions to re-allocate capital from other endeavors to fight against a warming planet. This is the decade we will begin to see this re-allocation of capital. We will see carbon taxed like the vice that it is in most countries around the world this decade, including in the US. We will see real estate values collapse in some of the most affected regions and we will see real estate values increase in regions that benefit from the warming climate. We will see massive capital investments made in protecting critical regions and infrastructure. We will see nuclear power make a resurgence around the world, particularly smaller reactors that are easier to build and safer to operate. We will see installed solar power worldwide go from ~650GW currently to over 20,000GW by the end of this decade. All of these things and many more will cause the capital markets to focus on and fund the climate issue to the detriment of many other sectors.

Die größte Herausforderung für uns als Menschen ist der rasante Fortschritt in der Genetik:

Continued advancements in genetics will produce massive wins this decade as cancer and other terminal illnesses become well understood and treatable. Fertility and reproduction will be profoundly changed. Genetics will also create new diseases and moral/ethical issues that will confound and confuse society. Balancing the gains and losses that come from genetics will be our greatest challenge in this decade.

Im verlinkten Text findet ihr auch seine anderen acht Thesen.